What is at stake in the Taiwan election? – The Economist

Another victory for Tsai Ing-wen would take Taiwan even farther from Chinas orbit

by A.H.

TAIWANS VOTERS go to the polls on January 11th to elect their president and parliament (called the Legislative Yuan). If opinion surveys are any guide, the current president, Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which supports eventual independence, will beat Han Kuo-yu of the Kuomintang (KMT), which advocates closer ties with China. That would rule out any near-term prospect of a thaw in relations across the Taiwan Strait.

The DPP has been in power since 2016. In that time, relations between the two countries have worsened. China has flown military planes around the island, bullied and cajoled more of its few diplomatic allies into switching recognition to Beijing, and punished companies that treat Taiwan as separate from China. Chinas president, Xi Jinping, has reiterated his countrys long-standing offer of a one country, two systems formula, whereby Taiwan would be part of China but enjoy considerable autonomy. He has repeated threats to use force if necessary to bring Taiwan under Chinas control. Hong Kong is also supposed to be governed under a one country, two systems framework. But after more than six months of protests there, which have descended into violent clashes between police and protesters calling for democratic rights, voters in Taiwan do not have faith that such an arrangement would preserve their freedoms. Most Taiwanese citizens say they do not want the island ever to be unified with China.

Both Ms Tsai and her main rival, Mr Han, have rejected the idea of one country, two systems. But Mr Han shares Chinas view that the two sides already have an understanding that there is only one China, even if they disagree about what that meansan accord often called the 1992 consensus. Ms Tsai insists there was no such agreement. She and her supporters regard talk of one as a trap designed by China to lure Taiwan, which officially calls itself the Republic of China, into accepting that it is part of the Peoples Republic. So China would prefer Mr Han to win. Its likely disappointment will ensure that cross-strait relations remain strained at least until 2024, when the next national elections will be held.

The question of how to handle these ties has dominated the presidential race. But there are also domestic issues at stake, especially in the legislative polls. Ms Tsai has overseen three consecutive years of economic growth, but also of widening inequality. Wages have been stagnant and there are increasing concerns about air pollution. Last year Taiwan became the first Asian country to legalise gay marriage (more than 1,000 couples wed in the first month after the law came into effect), a move backed by Ms Tsai. But there was strong public opposition to this, which may boost support for legislators from the more socially conservative KMT. Whether the DPP will retain its control of the parliament is hard to predict. Should it lose its majority, Ms Tsai, assuming she wins re-election as president, would face difficulty enacting her policies.

Should she keep her job, Ms Tsais victory may have implications for Hong Kong. It is possible that China has been restrained so far in its response to the unrest because it has worried that tougher action might play into Ms Tsais hands. Were she to win, it might start demanding that Hong Kongs government adopt harsher measures to crush the protest movement, though it would remain very reluctant to send in troops. China would continue to insist that it is upholding its one country, two systems policy. But it would become even clearer that this requires subservience to the Communist Party. Few people in Taiwan would be surprised.

See also: What is Chinas one country, two systems policy? (June 30th 2019)

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What is at stake in the Taiwan election? - The Economist